Test hypothesis

1---
2name: test-hypothesis
3description: Write a structured hypothesis for an A/B test, after checking the
4  idea against what the team already learned. Use whenever someone proposes a
5  test or needs an experiment written up before it gets built.
6argument-hint: [brief description of the test]
7---
8
9# Test hypothesis
10
11## Step 0 - learnings check, first, always
12
13Run the learnings check skill on the idea before writing a word. It reads the
14concluded tests and returns a verdict: whether the idea repeats a known loser,
15trips a documented anti-pattern, is already settled, or extends a validated
16winner.
17
18- On **RECONSIDER**, show the block to the person who asked and confirm they
19  still want it before writing anything.
20- Otherwise carry the cited tests into the hypothesis. The previous-evidence
21  bullet below should name the specific past tests the check surfaced.
22
23Skipping this is how a team spends four weeks of traffic learning something it
24wrote down last spring.
25
26If you do not have that skill, do the search by hand before writing: grep the
27notes, the tracker, the old decks. Two minutes of searching beats four weeks of
28traffic. If there is genuinely nothing to search yet, say so in the hypothesis
29rather than leaving the evidence field looking answered.
30
31## The format
32
33### One-sentence summary
34
35We will try to help **who** to do **what** [when **specific conditions**] by
36changing **something**.
37
38### The detail
39
40We will try to help **who**
41
42- To do **what**
43- When **specific conditions** (only when there genuinely is a condition)
44- By changing **something**
45
46We will do this because:
47
48- **The reasoning.** Why this change should alter behaviour, stated as a
49  mechanism rather than a wish.
50- **The previous evidence.** Data, research or prior test results that support
51  it, named and dated. If there is none, the field stays empty and the
52  hypothesis says so.
53
54We are aiming to learn:
55
56- **A thing.** A specific question the result will answer.
57- **Another thing.** As many as genuinely apply.
58
59## Rules
60
61- **Who** is a real segment: new trial users, returning visitors on mobile,
62  people arriving from paid search. Not "users".
63- **What** is the job they are trying to do, in their terms.
64- **By changing** is specific enough to build from without another meeting.
65- Evidence is real or the field is empty. "We think people are confused" is not
66  evidence. A recording, a ticket count, an exit rate or a survey answer is.
67- Learnings are about behaviour, not just metric movement. "Does the metric go
68  up" is not a learning, it is the test.
69- Write the decision rule now: the effect worth having, the sample it needs,
70  how long that takes at current traffic, and what you do if the result is
71  flat. Deciding this after the numbers arrive is how flat results become wins.
72
73## Output
74
75The verdict from step 0, the hypothesis, and one line naming the smallest
76version of the test that would still answer the question.
77
78Save it next to the others, dated, one file per test, so the learnings check
79can find it in a year.