Learnings check

1---
2name: learnings-check
3description: Check a proposed test idea against everything the team has already
4  learned, weighted by how recent and how proven each past result is. Returns a
5  verdict. Run it before any hypothesis gets written.
6argument-hint: [brief description of the test idea]
7---
8
9# Learnings check
10
11The read side of a team's memory. Before an idea becomes a hypothesis, check it
12against what has already been tested, so nobody re-runs a loser, re-litigates a
13settled question, or ignores a pattern that already works.
14
15## Step 1 - query the record, most recent first
16
17Pull concluded tests from wherever the raw record lives: the testing tool, the
18experiment tracker, or the learnings file. Filter to the ones touching the same
19page, element or zone as the idea.
20
21If the live record is unreachable, fall back to the written digest and say so.
22A verdict from a digest is not a verdict from the data.
23
24**If there is no record yet**, say that plainly and return PROCEED. A team on
25its first test has no prior art and does not need to pretend otherwise. Then do
26the one useful thing available: start the file, so the second test has something
27to check against. Everything below applies from the second test onward.
28
29## Step 2 - apply the recency policy
30
31Bucket every match by how old it is, relative to today:
32
33| Age | Weight | How to cite it |
34| --- | --- | --- |
35| Up to 6 months | primary | full weight |
36| 6 to 18 months | secondary | usable, but state the age out loud |
37| Over 18 months | stale | mention it exists, never cite it as evidence |
38
39A stale test alone never blocks an idea. Sites change, audiences change, old
40truths expire. Say "this was tested about two years ago, re-validate it" and
41move on.
42
43## Step 3 - tier every result you are about to cite
44
45Mandatory. Never present a bare claim.
46
47- **Proven.** Two or more tests point the same way, with strong statistics, and
48  recent. Reliable.
49- **Provisional.** A single clean result. Directionally useful, one test, not
50  law. Always cite it with that caveat.
51- **Weak.** Inconclusive, small sample, stale, or contradicted by another test.
52  Offer it as a re-test idea, never as evidence.
53
54A win that was never re-validated is Provisional, not Proven. Say so.
55
56## Step 4 - sort into four buckets
57
58Cite the test, its tier and its age every time.
59
601. **Repeats a recent loser.** A close paraphrase lost inside the last 18
61   months. Quote the test and the mechanism.
622. **Anti-pattern risk.** Contradicts a documented failure mode, even if this
63   exact thing was never tested.
643. **Already settled.** A recent win already shipped, or a recent inconclusive
65   in a zone known to produce no signal.
664. **Extends a validated winner.** Name it, tier it, and note that winners do
67   not always transfer between pages, audiences or markets.
68
69If nothing matches inside the recency window, say that plainly. A genuinely new
70idea is a valid outcome.
71
72## Step 5 - the verdict
73
74```
75Learnings check: <the idea in one line>   (as of <today>, 6mo primary / 18mo cap)
76
77Recent loser     - [test, tier, N months ago, what happened]
78Anti-pattern     - [test, tier, mechanism]
79Already settled  - [test, tier, N months ago]
80Builds on winner - [test, tier, effect, N months ago]
81Stale precedent  - [test, over 18 months, re-validate, not cited as evidence]
82
83Verdict: PROCEED / PROCEED WITH CHANGES / RECONSIDER
84Why: <two or three sentences, every citation carrying its tier and age>
85Sharpen it by: <one concrete adjustment that respects the past results>
86```
87
88Omit any line that has nothing in it.
89
90- **RECONSIDER** only for a near-exact repeat of a recent, Provisional-or-better
91  loser, or a clear anti-pattern. Always pair it with a better alternative.
92- **PROCEED WITH CHANGES** when the idea is supported but risks a known failure
93  mode.
94- **PROCEED** when it is new, or when the only precedent is stale or weak.
95
96Be a guard, not a gate. Inform, never block. The person asking can always
97override you, and sometimes should.